The latest 2012/13 total production estimates from the ICO, a new development program to combat climate change, and weather conditions in South America.
Crop year 2012/13 has finished up in all exporting countries. Based on the latest ICO market report, total production has been estimated at 145.2 million bags. This is a 9.6 percent increase on the previous coffee year, with the 2011/12 crop year amounting to 132.4 million bags. Robusta production has increased by 11.6 percent to 56.4 million bags, while Arabica production has tentatively recorded an 8.4 percent increase to 88.8 million bags.
Brazil has recorded a 16.9 percent increase to produce a total of 50.83 million bags. Arabica production was equal to 38.34 million bags, a 19.1 percent increase on last year and Robusta registered a 10.5 percent increase producing 12.48 million bags. Colombia has estimated a total crop production of 10 million bags for the 2012/13 year, a 30.7 percent increase on the previous year. Leaf rust affected Peru has registered a 17.2 decrease in production totaling 4.5 million bags, with more than 40 percent of the coffee areas reportedly affected.
Central America and Mexico have also registered a decline due to the impacts of leaf rust, with total production in the region dropping 14.7 percent from 20.3 million bags in 2011/12 to an estimated 17.3 million in 2012/13. Nicaragua is expected to record the biggest decrease of the affected origins with an estimated drop of 39.3 percent, followed by Guatemala with an 18.2 percent reduction, Honduras with 17 percent reduction, and Mexico with 14.5 percent reduction. Conversely Costa Rica and Honduras are estimated to register an increase of 14.5 percent and 7.9 percent respectively.
Total coffee production in Asia and Oceania is estimated at 42.3 million bags, an 11.3 percent increase on the previous coffee year. Production in Vietnam and India is expected to remain level; however Indonesia has registered a substantial increase of 74.7 percent from 7.3 million bags in 2011/12 to 12.7 million bags 202012/13. PNG and Thailand are expected to register decreases of 49.3 percent and 39.9 percent respectively.
In other news, a new climate change adaptation development program for farmers has recently been launched in Vietnam by UTZ Certified and Amsterdam based DouweEgberts Foundation. The three-year project, called Coffee Climate Care (C3), will begin with a pilot group of approximately 500 producers in the Lam Dong province. The program will aim to assess the susceptibility of production losses due to climate change, train farmers to implement adaptation strategies to combat the impacts of climate change, and create a ‘code of conduct’ for coffee producers throughout the world. Comprehensive studies will be conducted, measuring greenhouse gas emissions and carbon losses, to determine the impacts of climate change for coffee producers.
Looking to the upcoming crop, excellent weather conditions have been recorded in Brazil this month with good rainfall expected to continue in the main coffee areas. With multiple flowerings already recorded, this rainfall will further improve conditions for crops and has led to increased production estimates. Conditions in Colombia are also good and the Colombian Coffee Growers Federation estimates that farmers may reap the biggest harvest since 2007.
Ref: DRWakefield, SWDCC, Falcon Specialty, UTZ Certified.